Ranking challenges, risks and threats using Fuzzy Inference System

Darko Bozanic; Duško Tešić; Adis Puška; Anđelka Štilić; Yousif Raad Muhsen

doi:10.31181/dmame622023926

Authors

Darko Bozanic Military Academy, University of Defence in Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9657-0889
Duško Tešić Military Academy, University of Defence in Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5277-3270
Adis Puška Department of Public Safety, Government of Brčko District of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brčko, Bosnia and Herzegovina https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3274-0188
Anđelka Štilić The College of Tourism, Academy of Applied Studies Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9131-1642
Yousif Raad Muhsen Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Wasit University, Iraq https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4765-4189

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31181/dmame622023926

Keywords:

fuzzy inference system (FIS), challenges, risks, threats

Abstract

This paper presents a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) designed to comprehensively assess challenges, risks, and threats. In the realm of security and defense, defining these elements is inherently uncertain and complex. The paper addresses this challenge by integrating fuzzy logic into the model. As a pivotal instrument for decision-making, the model not only facilitates the precise identification of challenges, risks, and threats but also provides vital support for the strategic and doctrinal document development process. The methodology proves instrumental in reconciling divergent perspectives, aligning theoretical intricacies with practical applications. By effectively capturing the nuanced interplay between variables, the model offers a dynamic framework that enhances the accuracy and efficiency of security-related decision-making.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Bayramov, A., Pashayev, A., & Sabziev, E. (2023). Fuzzy Model of Defence of the Defensive Line by a Group of Dynamic Objects. In: Shahbazova, S.N., Abbasov, A.M., Kreinovich, V., Kacprzyk, J., Batyrshin, I.Z. (eds) Recent Developments and the New Directions of Research, Foundations, and Applications (pp. 369-376). Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing, vol 422. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-20153-0_30

Bošković, S., Švadlenka, L., Jovčić, S., Dobrodolac, M., Simić, V., & Bacanin, N. (2023). An Alternative Ranking Order Method Accounting for Two-Step Normalization (AROMAN)—A Case Study of the Electric Vehicle Selection Problem. IEEE Access, 11, 39496-39507. https//doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2023.3265818

Božanić, D. I., & Pamučar, D. S. (2010). Evaluating locations for river crossing using fuzzy logic. Military Technical Courier, 58(1), 129-145. https://doi.org/10.5937/vojtehg1001129B

Božanić, D., Pamučar, D., & Komazec, N. (2017). Fuzzy Logic System for ranking Challenges, Risks and Threats. In Proceedings of the Security and Crisis Management - Theory and Practice (SeCMan) (pp. 313-321), Obrenovac, Serbia.

Božanić, D., Slavković, R., & Karović, S. M. (2015). Model of fuzzy logic application to the assessment of risk in overcoming the water obstacles during an army defensive operation. Vojno delo, 67(4), 240–260. https://doi.org/10.5937/vojdelo1504240b

Božanić, D., Tešić, D., Marinković, D., & Milić, A. (2021). Modeling of neuro-fuzzy system as a support in decision-making processes. Reports in Mechanical Engineering, 2(1), 222–234. https://doi.org/10.31181/rme2001021222b

Brauch, H. G. (2005). Threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks in environmental and human security. Bonn: UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS). http://collections.unu.edu/eserv/UNU:1868/pdf4040.pdf

Buzan, B. (1983). People, state & fear: The national security problem. International Relations, 1954-62. Brighton: Harvester Books.

Buzan, B., Wæver, O., & De Wilde, J. (1998). Security: A New Framework for Analysis. London: Lynne Rienner Publishers.

Çolak, M., Kaya, İ., Karaşan, A., & Erdogan, M. (2022). Two-phase multi-expert knowledge approach by using fuzzy clustering and rule-based system for technology evaluation of unmanned aerial vehicles. Neural Computing and Applications, 34(7), 5479–5495. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-021-06694-0

Cristea, L. M. (2020). Current security threats in the national and international context. Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, 19(2), 351–378. https://doi.org/10.24818/jamis.2020.02007

Čupić, M., & Suknović, M. (2010). Decision making (Only in Serbian: Odlučivanje). Belgrade: Faculty of Organisational Sciences.

Dimitrijević, V. (1973). The concept of security in international relations (Only in Serbian: Pojam bezbednosti u međunarodnim odnosima). Belgrade: Federation of Associations of Lawyers of Yugoslavia.

Đuričić, I. (2023). Application of Cube IQ software and multicriteria optimization models for the selection of vehicles for the transport of goods in the Serbian Armed Forces. Military Technical Courier, 71(2), 257–295. https://doi.org/10.5937/vojtehg71-42298

Efthymiopoulos, M. P. (2019). A cyber-security framework for development, defense and innovation at NATO. Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, 8, 12. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13731-019-0105-z

Granados, C., Das, A. K., & Osu, B. O. (2023). Weighted Neutrosophic Soft Multiset and Its Application to Decision Making. Yugoslav Journal of Operations Research, 33(2), 293–308. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/YJOR220915034G

Güneri, B., & Deveci, M. (2023). Evaluation of supplier selection in the defense industry using q-rung orthopair fuzzy set based EDAS approach. Expert Systems With Applications, 222, 119846. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2023.119846

Jangid, V., & Kumar, G. (2022). A Novel Technique for Solving Two-Person Zero-Sum Matrix Games in a Rough Fuzzy Environment. Yugoslav Journal of Operations Research, 32(2), 251-278. https://doi.org/10.2298/YJOR210617003J

Johns, T. (2011). Risk analysis in loss prevention research. Security Journal, 24, 225-236. https://doi.org/10.1057/sj.2011.11

Kamalov, F., Gheisari, M., Liu, Y., Feylizadeh, M. R., & Moussa, S. (2023). Critical controlling for the network security and privacy based on blockchain technology: a fuzzy DEMATEL approach. Sustainability, 15(13), 10068. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151310068

Karakosta, C., Mylona, Z., Karásek, J., Papapostolou, A., & Geiseler, E. (2021). Tackling covid-19 crisis through energy efficiency investments: Decision support tools for economic recovery. Energy Strategy Reviews, 38, 100764. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2021.100764

Karović, S. (2015). Crisis management (Only in Serbian: Krizni menadžment). Belgrade: Military Academy.

Keković, Z., Savić, S., Komazec, N., Milošević, M., & Jovanović, D. (2011). Risk assessment in the protection of persons, property and business (Only in Serbian: Procena rizika u zaštiti lica, imovine i poslovanja). Belgrade: Center for Risk Analysis and Crisis Management.

Klinke, A., & Renn, O. (1999). Prometheus unbound. Challenges of Risk Evaluation, Risk Classification and Risk Management. Stuttgart: Arbeitsbericht der Akademie für Technikfolgenabschätzung in Baden Württemberg (No. 153).

Kollati, H., & Debnath, A. (2021). A short review on different techniques used for site selection of air quality monitoring stations. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Decision Making, 2(1), 27-30. https://doi.org/10.31181/jiedm200201026h

Kovač, M., & Stojković, D. (2009). Strategic defense planning (Only in Serbian: Strategijsko planiranje odbrane). Belgrade: Military Publishing House.

Kumar, R., Khan, A. I., Abushark, Y. B., Alam, M., Agrawal, A., & Khan, R. A. (2020). An Integrated approach of Fuzzy Logic, AHP and TOPSIS for estimating Usable-Security of Web applications. IEEE Access, 8, 50944–50957. https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2020.2970245

Marin, G., Modica, M., Paleari, S., & Zoboli, R. (2021). Assessing disaster risk by integrating natural and socio-economic dimensions: A decision-support tool. Socio-economic Planning Sciences, 77, 101032. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2021.101032

McGill, W. L., & Ayyub, B. M. (2007). Multicriteria Security System performance Assessment using Fuzzy logic. The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, 4(4), 356–376. https://doi.org/10.1177/154851290700400405

Mzili, T., Mzili, I., Riffi, M., Pamucar, D., Simic, V., & Kurdi, M. (2023). A novel discrete rat swarm optimization algorithm for the quadratic assignment problem. Facta Universitatis, Series: Mechanical Engineering, (online first). Retrieved from http://casopisi.junis.ni.ac.rs/index.php/FUMechEng/article/view/11903

Narang, M., Kumar, A., & Dhawan, R. (2023). A fuzzy extension of MEREC method using parabolic measure and its applications. Journal of Decision Analytics and Intelligent Computing, 3(1), 33–46. https://doi.org/10.31181/jdaic10020042023n

Naseem, A., Akram, M., Ullah, K., & Ali, Z. (2023). Aczel-Alsina Aggregation Operators Based on Complex Single-valued Neutrosophic Information and Their Application in Decision-Making Problems. Decision Making Advances, 1(1), 86–114. https://doi.org/10.31181/dma11202312

Obradović, R., & Pamučar, D. (2020). Multi-Criteria model for the selection of construction materials: an approach based on fuzzy logic. Tehnicki Vjesnik-technical Gazette. https://doi.org/10.17559/tv-20190426123437

Orlić, D. (2004). Notional determination of challenges, risks, and threats in the international security system reshaping process. Vojno delo, 56(3), 76-93.

Pamučar, D. Božanić, D. & Đorović, B. (2011a). Fuzzy logic in decision making process in the Armed forces of Serbia. Saarbrucken: LAMBERT Academic Publishing.

Pamučar, D., Božanić, D., Đorović, B., & Milić, A. (2011b). Modelling of the fuzzy logical system for offering support in making decisions within the engineering units of the Serbian army. International journal of the physical sciences, 6(3), 592-609. https://doi.org/10.5897/IJPS11.012

Pamučar, D., Đorović, B., Božanić, D., & Ćirović, G. (2012). Modification of the dynamic scale of marks in analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and analytic network approach (ANP) through application of fuzzy approach. Scientific Research and Essays, 7(1), 24-37. https://doi.org/10.5897/SRE11.373

Roe, P. (2010). Societal security. In A. Collins (ed.), Contemporary Security Studies (Translation into Croatian) (pp. 191-209). Zagreb: Political culture.

Sahoo, S. K., & Goswami, S. S. (2023). A Comprehensive Review of Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) Methods: Advancements, Applications, and Future Directions. Decision Making Advances, 1(1), 25–48. https://doi.org/10.31181/dma1120237

Sánchez-Lozano, J. M., Correa-Rubio, J., & Fernández-Martínez, M. (2022). A double fuzzy multi-criteria analysis to evaluate international high-performance aircrafts for defense purposes. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 115, 105339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2022.105339

Santos, V. M. D., Grecco, C. H. D. S., De Carvalho, R. J. M., & De Carvalho, P. V. R. (2019). A fuzzy model to assess the resilience of Protection and Civil Defense Organizations. Quality & Quantity, 54(3), 735–759. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00953-y

Settembre-Blundo, D., González-Sánchez, R., Medina-Salgado, M., & Muiña, F. E. G. (2021). Flexibility and resilience in Corporate decision making: A new Sustainability-Based Risk Management System in uncertain times. Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, 22, 107–132. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40171-021-00277-7

Si, A., & Ganguly, U. (2021). Drainage and management of offseason rain water in multipurpose reservoir using fuzzy model. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Decision Making, 2(1), 22-26. https://doi.org/10.31181/jiedm200201022s

Simić, D. R. (2002). Science of security: Modern approaches to security (Only in Serbian: Nauka o bezbednosti: Savremeni pristupi bezbednosti). Belgrade: Official Gazette of the FRY.

Snow, D. M. (2019). National Security. In Routledge eBooks. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429427923

Stanarević, S., & Ejdus, F. (2009). Glossary of Security Culture (Only in Serbian: Pojmovnik bezbednosne kulture). Belgrade: Center for Civil-Military Relations). https://rhinosec.fb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/47?locale-attribute=sr_RS

Štilić, A., Puška, E., Puška, A., & Božanić, D. (2023). An Expert-Opinion-Based evaluation framework for sustainable Technology-Enhanced Learning using Z-Numbers and fuzzy Logarithm methodology of additive weights. Sustainability, 15(16), 12253. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151612253

Tabesh, M., Roozbahani, A., Hadigol, F., & Ghaemi, E. (2021). Risk assessment of water treatment plants using fuzzy fault tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Iranian Journal of Science and Technology-Transactions of Civil Engineering, 46(1), 643–658. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40996-020-00498-3

Tatomir, D. (2011). Assessment of challenges, risks and threats to the security of the Republic of Serbia in support of planning the use of the Army of Serbia. Vojno delo, 63(1), 41-55.

Teodorović, D., & Kikuchi, S. (1994). Fuzzy sets and applications in traffic and transport (Only in Serbian: Fuzzy skupovi i primene u saobraćaju i transportu). Belgrade: Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering.

Tešić, D., Božanić, D., Puška, A., Milić, A., & Marinković, D. (2023). Development of the MCDM fuzzy LMAW-grey MARCOS model for selection of a dump truck. Reports in Mechanical Engineering, 4(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.31181/rme20008012023t

Tripathy, S. P. (2023). Bi-objective covering salesman problem with uncertainty. Journal of Decision Analytics and Intelligent Computing, 3(1), 122–138. https://doi.org/10.31181/jdaic10015082023t

Ullman, R. H. (1983). Redefining security. International security, 8(1), 129-153.

Ulutaş, A., Topal, A., Pamučar, D., Stević, Ž., Karabašević, D., & Popović, G. (2022). New Integrated Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model for Sustainable Supplier Selection Based on a Novel Grey WISP and Grey BWM Methods. Sustainability, 14, 16921. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142416921

Wahid, F. F., Raju, G., Joseph, S. M., Swain, D., Das, O. P., & Acharya, B. (2023). A Novel Fuzzy-Based Thresholding Approach for Blood Vessel Segmentation from Fundus Image. Journal of Advances in Information Technology, 14(2), 185–192. https://doi.org/10.12720/jait.14.2.185-192

Wang, K., Zhang, Y., Goswami, S. S., Yin, Y., & Zhao, Y. (2023). Investigating the Role of Artificial Intelligence Technologies in the Construction Industry Using a Delphi-ANP-TOPSIS Hybrid MCDM Concept under a Fuzzy Environment. Sustainability, 15(15), 11848. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511848

Zadeh, L. (1965). Fuzzy sets. Information and control, 8, 338-353.

Zhou, B., Chen, J., Wu, Q., Pamučar, D., Wang, W., & Zhou, L. (2022). Risk priority evaluation of power transformer parts based on hybrid FMEA framework under hesitant fuzzy environment. Facta Universitatis, Series: Mechanical Engineering, 20(2), 399-420. https://doi.org/10.22190/FUME220223013Z